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CITY COUNCIL AGENDA ITEM NO. 18

Meeting Date: January 8, 2002

Subject/Title: ABAG Projections 2002

Submitted by: Mitch Oshinsky, AICP, Community Development Director

Approved by: John Stevenson, City Manager


RECOMMENDATION: Receive and file this informational report. 

PREVIOUS ACTION: None

BACKGROUND: ABAG’s Projections 2002 contains forecasts for the San Francisco Bay Area to the year 2025 for population, households, labor force, income and jobs. If you would like to see the full document, please let me know. Here is some relevant information for the County, Brentwood, and our neighbors:

Contra Costa County

2000 2005 2010 2025

Population 948,816 1,013,200 1,074,500 1,209,900
Mean Household Income $86,500 $88,200 $92,700 $107,600
Jobs 361,110 385,050 419,140 495,460

Job Growth – “The county added over 46,500 jobs during the 90’s. The majority of those jobs, over 28,800, were in the service sector (business). . . We expect the economy of Contra Costa County to grow substantially in the next 25 years. It will add 37% more jobs during that period, the highest percentage for any of the more industrialized southern counties. In total, the county is expected to add 134,350 jobs during the forecast period. Again, the largest number of jobs will be added in the service sector, with 60,670 jobs . . . In the first ten years of the forecast period, San Ramon will add the most jobs, with 10,810. . . In percentage terms, the eastern portion of the county will see the strongest growth. Rural East Contra Costa County will see a 49% increase in jobs, followed by Oakley, with a 38% increase, and Brentwood, with a 31 percent increase in jobs by 2010. These high growth rates reflect the small job bases in these areas and the substantial capacity they have for growth . . . Over the forecast period, Contra Costa County will add over 59,000 more employed residents than jobs. This translates into 59,000 more people commuting out of Contra Costa County to work. . .”

Population Growth – “From 1990 to 2000, the county added another 145,100 residents . . . for two reasons. First, average household sizes increased. Second, several Contra Costa communities continue to have vacant land available for development at prices that permit housing to be less expensive, and therefore, more affordable than in other central Bay Area counties. Contra Costa County is projected to gain another 99,380 households between 2000 and 2025 . . . The number of new households in Contra Costa will be the second highest in the region. In the forecast period, East County and San Ramon will dominate the county’s growth, accounting for almost 63% of new households . . . San Ramon, including Dougherty Valley, is expected to add 14,410 households in the next 25 years – more than any other Subregional Study Area in the county. Pittsburg and Bay Point, an unincorporated community within Pittsburg’s Sphere of Influence, will have the second highest growth with 14,080 households. The Pittsburg/Bay Point BART station is the new terminus for the Concord line and is fueling the City’s growth. Antioch will have the third highest growth with about 11,210 projected new households expected between 2000 and 2025. Brentwood will have the fourth highest expected growth with 10,100 households. . .” 

Brentwood

2000 2005 2010 2025

Population 23,302 29,700 36,400 52,700
Jobs 5,160 5,490 6,790 13,170
Retail Jobs 1,100 1,130 1,510 3,130
Service Jobs 3,030 3,310 4,180 7,640
Mean Household Income $78,900 $82,900 $86,000 $90,200


Antioch

2000 2005 2010 2025

Population 90,532 94,000 101,700 117,500
Jobs 16,290 17,410 20,570 28,960
Mean Household Income $73,800 $74,900 $76,100 $79,300


Oakley

2000 2005 2010 2025

Population 25,619 30,400 33,400 40,300
Jobs 3,920 4,260 5,420 10,990
Mean Household Income $72,400 $73,900 $75,300 $82,700



Note – Income is in constant 2000 dollars


FISCAL IMPACT: If these forecasts are accurate, as is generally supported by other forecasts we have received, then continued positive job and revenue growth will occur as Brentwood grows in the future.

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